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Articles & Papers VISION20:20202, Economic Growth and the Nigerian Editor
Articles & Papers VISION20:20202, Economic Growth and the Nigerian Editor
| VISION20:20202, Economic Growth and the Nigerian Editor |
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| Written by Gbenga Adefaye |
| Sunday, 12 April 2009 11:56 |
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VISION 20 2020: Economic Growth & the Nigerian Editor By Dr. Shamsudeen Usman Honorable Minister/Deputy Chairman National Planning Commissio n 1. Introduction 1. The Vision 22. Concept of Visioning 3. Similar Visions 2. Understanding Nigeria’s Vision 20 2020 11. Vision 2020: An Enormous Task 2. Vision 2020: Why we are Confident 3. Key Goals 4. Critical Success Factors for Vision 2020 5. 7 Point Agenda, National Development Plan and Vision 2020 6. Institutional framework 7. Recent Challenges and Opportunities 8. Policies for achieving Vision 2020 9. Implementation 3. The Nigerian Media and Vision 2020 1.0 Introduction: The Vision 2007-2020 To make Nigeria among the 20 largest economies in the world by 2020 1.0 Introduction: Concept of Visioning First to the Skeptics: 1. “Everything that can be invented has been invented” -Commissioner of US Office of Patents 1899 2. “Despite the TV being theoretically and technically feasible, I think it is not commercially viable. I don’t see people sitting in their living room looking at an image in a square box ” -Lee De Forest, inventor of cathode tubes, 1926 3. “Who wants to hear actors talk” -Harry Warner, Warner Brothers Pictures, 1927 4. “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their homehome” -Ken Olsen, ex-president of Digital Equipment Corp. 1977 5. Initial prospects of NICON Hilton Hotel by Nigerian Bankers 1.0 Introduction: Similar Visions Kenya: Vision 2030 (2008 – 2030) to transform Kenya into a newly industrialising, middle income country providing a high quality life to all its citizens by the year 2030 macroeconomic stability continuity in governance reforms enhanced equity and wealth creation opportunities for the poor Infrastructture energy science, technology and innovation (STI) land reform human resources development security public sector reforms 1.0 Introduction: Similar Visions India: Vision 2020 (1999 – 2020) .. Transforming the nation into a developed country ; Agriculture and food processing -with a target of doubling the present production of food and agricultural products by 2020. Infrastructure with reliable and quality electric power including solar farming Education and Healthcare to provide social security and eradication of illiteracy, and health for all Information and Communication Technology Information and Communication Technology Critical technologies and strategic industries to witness the growth in nuclear technology, space technology and the defence technology. 1.0 Introduction: Similar Visions Malaysia: Vision 2020 (1991 – 2020) To become a developped nation in its own mould by 2020 Establishing a united Malaysian nation made up of one Bangsa Malaysia Creating a psychologically liberated, secure and developed Malaysian society Fostering and developing a mature democratic society Establishing a fully moral and ethical society Establishing a matured liberal and tolerant society Establishing a scientific and progressive society Establishing a fully caring society Ensuring an economically just society, in which there is a fair and equitable distribution of the wealth of the nation Establishing a prosperous society with an economy that is fully competitive, dynamic robust and resilient 2.1 Understanding Vision 2020: An enormous task .. Only 11 years left 2005 Goldman Sachs report projected that if Nigeria “got it right on all critical success factors”, Nigeria could be among top 20 by 2025. President Obasanjo challenged Nigerians to do it in 5 years less. What has Nigeria got to do to achieve this? What rate of growth? What other institutional and structural reforms? Are the other countries going to remain static? 2.1 Understanding Vision 2020: Nigeria is currently 40th economy in the world. To overtake Turkey (20th with 2008 as baseline); Nigeria has to : Grow its GDP by 300% from US$ 210bn (2008) to at least US$900bn (2020). Achieve a GDP growth rate of 13 per cent or higher From 2000 – 2008 Nigeria’s average growth rate was 7% (World average growth rate was 3 per cent.) Countries we hope to overtake are either at same level or growing faster: Malaysiia (5%) China (10%) India (7.4%) Vietnam (7.60%) 2.1 Understanding Vision 2020: To catch rivals you have to run TWICE as fast. Nigeria’s Current GDP Per Capita: US$1260 This is where USA was in 1880 We will be where Poland and Mexico were in 1990 if we multiply current GDP per capita by SEVEN. Other countries GDP/Capita, relative to Nigeria’s: Russia 9 times. Malaysiia 7 times China 4.5 times Thailand 4 times 2.1 To produce the desired 2020 GDP: 60,000 MW electricity generating capacity required - against target of 6000 MW by December 2009. US$60 bn investment needed to meet above requirement. US$ 30 bn additional investment required in transmission and distribution US$50bn investment in railway modernization and expansion to provide bulk transportation. Huge investments required in: Roads National gas grid under the new gas master-plan Ports and shipping services Airports and aviation services Reconstruction and expansion of roads Educatition and manpower 2.1 Significant investment in Education in a short time World Ranking of Universities Highest ranked University in Africa is 200th in World (University of Cape Town) Highest ranked University in Nigeria is 74th in Africa (University of Ibadan)) Development of science and technology in a short time Technological capability is significantly and positively correlated with physical infrastructure In a ranking of 75 countries, the USA ranks number one in knowledge capacity, Malaysia 39, South Africa 39, Nigeria 66 .. Facilities for expanded and upgraded security services. Achieving buy-in and a national consistency in a short period Nigeria’s economic potentials Recent conditions of growth seem right for launching onto a path of sustained and rapid growth. Need to sustain thhe momentum Successes we can build on: Anti-corruption campaign Mr. President’s insistence on the Rule of law Telecoms deregulation – a five-fold rise in teledensity 1999-2002 Debt Relief (Paris Club agreement, Oct 19 2005). IMF: “Nigeria Has Turned the Corner” Sovereign credit ratings by Fitch and S&P. Nigeria’s international image still strong JP Morgan report shows Nigeria as among least vulnerable to global crisis Recent Financial Times survey places Nigeria and Ethiopia as most favorable African potential investor destinations. Countrywide enthusiasm and indication of interest from a wide array of Nigerians and the international community. The current Administration has committed to the Vision John F. Kenedy’s 1961 vision to land a man on the moon before the end of the decade. In mid 1950s, US lagged behind Soviet Union in the Space race. The US President himself admitted that it was difficult: We choose to go the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies andd skills and because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win” J.F Kennedy 1961 On July 20, 1969, the mission was accomplished. Nigeria at threshold of a similar dream .. Challenge as demanding and inspiring Large percentage of Nigerians Skeptical. Confident in our resolve and commitment Confident of Mr. President’s resolve to transform Nigeria. 2.3 Key Goals For The Vision Polity A peaceful, harmonious and stable democracy. Macro Economy - A sound, stable and globally competitive Economy economy with a GDP of not less than $900 billion and per capita GDP of over $4000 p.a. Infrastructure Adequate infrastructure services that support the full mobilizatition of all economic sectors. Education Modern and vibrant education system with opportunity and facility for every Nigerian to achieve his/her full potential. Health A health sector that supports and sustains a life expectancy of not less than 70 years Agricllture A modern, technologically enabled, agricultural sector that guarantees national food security and contributes significantly to foreign exchange earnings. Manufacturing A vibrant and globally competitive manufacturing sector with contribution to GDP of not less than 40% 2.4 Critical Success Factors The capacity to achieve the Vision depends on a wide array of factors including: The rate of economic growth measured by GDP per capita. The capacity of physical infrastructure (especially electricity, telecomms and transportation). The capacity, growth and accumulation of knowledge particularly scientific and technological The Human Capital Challenge: Employment, Formal education, Science Technology and Innovation (STI) The Urban Challenge: Urban renewal The Urban Challenge: Urban renewal, and elimination and elimination of slums Rate of change of the urban population in Africa and Nigeria is highest in the world. Urbanization without the economic basis to sustain growth. Big stress on key infrastructure: destroying production and decline in quality of life Energy and the Environment. The Political Economy and Institutions for Development, Rule of Law and Accountability Monitoring the Vision: Setting Clear Milestones and Holding Persons and Organizations Responsible Clear definition, which spells out the goals to be achieved in all key sectors. Leadership Commitment Consistency . Shared Partnership and Ownership. Must involve all key stakeholders NESG and Some Universities already preparing blueprints. Critical role for the Media A holistic, coherent and integrated strategy supported by realistic and up-to-date data and rigorous analysis. Growing the Private Sector Need to reduce the cost of doing business through: Investor-friendly tax and other incentives regime Provision of enabling environment to generate investor confidence and attract greater flow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Promotion of greater partnership between government and the private sector Privatization of public enterprises. 2.4 Critical Success Factors Clear identification and promotion of leading growth factors; eg Macro: Micro: .. Demographics Education Openness Cost of Doing Business Investment Legal Framework .. Debt Political Climate Political Climate Inflation Infrastructure Studies commissioned to identify growth drivers for Nigeria for Vision 2020 Other drivers of the Vision: Sustained reforms .. Achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) The 7-Point Agenda 2.5 Mr. President’s 7 Point Agenda, National Developpment Plan & Vision 2020 7 Point Agenda, National Development Plan and Vision 2020 all related. 2.6 Institutional Framework for Vision 2020 V2020 Framework being implemented, as approved by the FEC National Steering Committee (NSC) Short-listing of members of the National Technical Working Groups (NTWGs) Thematic areas revised from 41 – 29 Sensitization of MDAs and State Governments for their inputs Relevant Ministers/Heads of MDAs to chair Stakeholder Committees Established Vision 2020 Secretariat Support of MDAs, OPS and Development Partners Set up Group of Economists to Identify Nigeria’s Growth Drivers Invite memoranda from public Need to take in views of Special Interest Groups Traditional Rulers; Youths; Women; Judiciary, Legislature, Nigerians in Diaspora, Physically Challenged, etc Inauguration of the Business Support Group (BSG), to Mobilize support and financial resources for the Vision Ensure private sector participation in actualizing the Vision Generate awareness on activities and programmes for attainingg the Vision. Selection of Coordinating Consultant to work with Committees and Other Consultants .. Original time schedule for Vision 2020 Preparation: 9 months – Now Revised to 7.5 months From Vision 2020 we can derive 3 Medium-Term Plans 2007 - 2011 2011 - 2015 2015 -2020 2.6 Institutional Framework for Vision 2020 To ensure inclusiveness, ownership and buy-in stakeholders, the Federal Government, the Private Sector, and the Development Partners are expected to contribute to the funding. State Governments to fund their respective visioning processes. 2.7 Recent Challenges & Opportunities Current Global Crisis poses major Threats to Vision 2020 Many industrialized economies now in recession. Slowdown in global economic growth. In 2008, world GDP grew by 3.9%, down from 5.0% in 2007. Global growth outlook for 2009 is 3.0%. Weak global demand substantially reducing Nigeria's export revenues. Reduced oil revenues could swing Nigeria’s fiscal and current account balances from surpluses to deficits affecting public sector account balances from surpluses to deficits, affecting public sector spending. Declining flows of capital to Nigeria (FDI, ODA, Remittances) . Capital flight by foreign investors and Nigerians has contributed to the depreciation of the Naira and a fall in the stock market. 2.7 Recent Challenges & Opportunities Reversal of brain drain and wastage Nigeria has suffered greatly from brain drain Estimated 17 million Nigerians in Europe, Asia and America After 15-20 years, a multitude itching to return home Opportunity to re-work and re-plan our economy .. Continuation of reforms and restructuring Continuation of reforms and restructuring With top 20 countries projected to grow slower, Nigeria may be able to catch them up faster. 2.8 Policies for Achieving Vision 2020 Heavy investment in the Growth Drivers of Vision 2020 Partnering with the private sector Providing security Incentives for sustaining business Improvement in the investment climate 21 25 810 15 20 Fewest Procedures -Global 1 3 5 5 6 6 7 8 0 5 Norway* Benin Cameroon Niger Chad South Ghana Kenya Nigeria Africa Number of days to register property 2.9 Implementation Sincerity and honesty by both the public and private sectors Framework for Vision 2020, incorporating NEEDS MDGs 7-Point Agenda Road Map or Action Plan for achieving Vision 2020 Short, medium and long-term activities / programmes 2.9 Implementation Provide realistic costing / budget for the various programmes and activities Identify ‘champions’ or responsible officers or Ministries, Departments and Agencies for effective implementation Monitor and evaluate against set milestones Be open to adjustments as we embark on the journeyy 3 years ago nobody expected a global economic crisis 3.0 The Nigerian Media and Vision 2020 Various studies have shown a strong relationship between media development and economic growth. Media across the world has promoted competition in economiic and political markets, and helped create incentives for public and private agents to become more accountable. Media can empower people, including the poor, by giving them a platform for voicing diverse opinions, participating in governance, and engaging in markets.” Nigerian media editors have to be at the forefront of Vision 2020 Engagement and interaction with a wide range of members of the public and groups, Media’s power to drive public agenda and influence public opinion and policy outcomes. Unique opportunity for media to partake in evolving a road map for Nigeria’s growth and development. Capacity to introduce elements of self-criticism, reflection and projection into public dialogue Ability to enlist public support through education and enlightenment campaigns. .. Media’s reach and influence in generating positive change for the good of all. Need for Media to facilitate needed public dialogue to chart the path to sustainable development pathways for our country. Need for Media to sharpen the visioning processes, through massive public education and information. Need for editors to help generate different perspectives through deep situational analyses that will enrich the Vision. Vision 20 2020 can make meaning to Nigerians if the media would provide the needed structure for effective communication, coordination and networking. Members of the Nigerian Guild of Editors are encouraged to pick up the gauntlet by championing the role of the media in the Vision 20 2020 Project Thank You Being the text of the lecture - VISION 20 2020: Economic Growth & the Nigerian Editor Presented at the 5th All Nigerian Editor’s Conference Hamdala Hotel Kaduna by Dr Shamsuddeen Usman (OFR) Honorable Minister/Deputy Chairman National Planning Commission April 02, 2009 |
